Steencore Group Copper Market Newsletter: May 2025

Copper Market Outlook: Pricing, Supply, and Geopolitical Impacts

Welcome to Steencore Group’s latest update on the copper market. As a global leader in non-ferrous metals, we provide insights into the trends shaping copper pricing, supply dynamics, and the influence of geopolitical factors. This newsletter draws on recent developments to offer a clear perspective for our clients and partners.

Copper Pricing: Upward Momentum Amid Tightening Supply

Copper prices are experiencing significant upward pressure, driven by supply constraints and robust demand. Analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs, have forecasted a potential 40% price increase by mid-2025, with Morgan Stanley projecting prices could reach $10,200 per tonne due to persistent supply deficits. Recent posts on X highlight a surge in U.S. copper imports in March-April 2025, fueled by a $600+/ton spread and tariff risks, signaling strong market optimism. These trends align with Steencore’s observations of cyclical commodity opportunities, where demand and pricing growth are captured through strategic supply chain management.

Global Supply: Facing Shortfalls and Disruptions

The global copper supply is under strain, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of a potential 30% supply shortfall by 2035. Key factors include:

• Mine Supply Disruptions: Widespread interruptions in copper concentrate supply and delays in new mine ramp-ups have tightened inventories. X posts note that global copper inventories are critically low, equivalent to less than four days of consumption.
• High Refining Concentration: The IEA highlights risks from concentrated refining capacity, particularly in China, which dominates critical mineral processing. Export restrictions are also on the rise, further complicating supply chains.
• Regional Strengths: Zambia remains a global copper powerhouse, contributing 70% of its export earnings from the Copperbelt Province, while Steencore’s expanded operations in Peru bolster our ability to secure high-quality copper cathodes and concentrates for our clients.

Steencore’s strategic partnerships and focus on upstream operations ensure stable access to prime commodities despite these challenges.

Geopolitical Landscape: Navigating Risks and Opportunities

The geopolitical environment is reshaping copper supply dynamics:

• Tariff and Trade Tensions: Recent U.S. import surges reflect concerns over potential tariffs, driving rerouted flows from Asia and Europe. This underscores the need for diversified supply chains, a core strength of Steencore’s global network.
• China’s Dominance: With over 60% of global cobalt production and significant copper refining capacity, China’s export policies are critical. Any restrictive measures could exacerbate supply shortages, pushing prices higher.
• Energy Transition Demand: The global shift to green energy, particularly for electric vehicles and renewable storage, is increasing copper demand. Steencore’s focus on sustainable mining and partnerships in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America positions us to meet this growing need.

Strategic Outlook for Copper Supply and Pricing

Given the current market and geopolitical trends, Steencore recommends the following for stakeholders:

1. Secure Long-Term Contracts: With supply deficits projected to persist, locking in off-take agreements for copper cathodes and concentrates is critical. Steencore’s established agreements, such as our 120kMt per annum Cu Concentrate deals, provide clients with reliable access.
2. Diversify Supply Sources: Mitigate risks from concentrated refining and geopolitical uncertainties by partnering with suppliers like Steencore, who leverage local expertise in Peru, Chile, Brazil, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
3. Monitor Price Volatility: With forecasts of significant price increases, buyers should use trusted price assessments, such as those from Argus Non-Ferrous Markets, to manage risk. Steencore’s financing solutions can enhance liquidity without additional costs.
4. Embrace Sustainability: As demand for responsibly sourced metals grows, Steencore’s commitment to sustainable mining practices ensures compliance with environmental and social standards, aligning with global expectations.

Why Steencore?

Since 2011, Steencore Group has built a reputation as a premier supplier of non-ferrous metals, including copper cathodes and concentrates. Our global network, strategic partnerships, and focus on ethical business practices enable us to deliver high-quality commodities while navigating market complexities. Whether you’re a qualified buyer or supplier, Steencore offers tailored solutions to meet your needs.For more information on our copper products or to explore partnership opportunities, visit Steencore Group or contact our team.