Steencore Non-Ferrous Metals Market Outlook – July 2025

Resilience in the Face of Global Volatility: A Trader-Producer’s Perspective

Executive Summary

Non-ferrous metals markets have defied conventional expectations in July 2025, showing price stability despite geopolitical flashpoints such as the Iran-U.S. standoff, a weakening U.S. dollar, and ongoing supply risks in key producing regions. From Steencore’s vantage point—as both a trader and producer—we interpret this calm not as complacency, but as the result of greater structural resilience in the global supply chain.

Copper continues to hold a bullish posture, underpinned by demand in electrification and EVs. Aluminum reacted to energy market fears but re-stabilized. Zinc, nickel, and lead prices remain range-bound as speculative activity wanes. Meanwhile, China’s green stimulus policies and Europe’s steady industrial recovery sustain real physical demand. Through our integrated sourcing, refinery access, and trading platforms, Steencore is positioned to deliver certainty, speed, and scale in an otherwise uncertain global market.

Market Commentary: A Trader–Producer’s Perspective

July 2025 presents a complex but revealing landscape in non-ferrous markets. Across trading desks and production hubs alike, the fundamental question has been: why have metals remained so calm despite the heat in geopolitics and macro volatility?

From Steencore’s perspective, the answer lies in the evolution of how physical markets now function. The airstrikes in Iran earlier this month pushed oil prices sharply higher—momentarily affecting aluminum, which is highly exposed to energy pricing. However, within days, oil gave back gains as the Strait of Hormuz remained operational and diplomatic backchannels cooled escalation risks. The aluminum price spike, which had touched $2,630/t on the LME, quickly retreated as power markets normalized.

Copper, on the other hand, barely flinched. The LME 3-month contract remained around $9,640/t, while Shanghai Futures held steady above ¥78,000. Traditionally, these markets would have reacted to supply chain fears or EM currency volatility, but today’s copper market is underpinned by structural demand—green energy, EVs, grid expansion—and improved risk management by industrial consumers.

For Steencore, the price stability reflects the deeper strength of integrated supply networks. Our operations in Zambia and the DRC continue to produce high-grade copper ore, which we concentrate and deliver into regional smelters through secured refinery slots. From these hubs, cathodes and blister copper are produced to international specifications. This control of the chain—from mine to refined product—allows us to absorb shocks in logistics, energy, or local policy disruptions.

Our ability to pivot between markets—allocating copper units to Asia, Europe, or the MENA region—also means Steencore remains agile. In July, for instance, while some traders reduced exposure in light of Middle East instability, we moved increased tonnage to East Asia where buyers remained active, supported by a weaker dollar and ongoing strategic restocking by Chinese state-linked entities.

Currency also plays a silent but powerful role. The U.S. dollar’s softness—now at multi-year lows—has had a dampening effect on metal volatility. For many of our clients operating in euros, yuan, or emerging market currencies, the drop in the dollar effectively discounted the cost of procurement. This has helped maintain demand levels even where local economies are under macro pressure.

Europe’s industrial data has improved modestly, particularly in sectors linked to renewable infrastructure and electric mobility. Although the broader manufacturing PMI remains sluggish, select demand for battery metals and electrical-grade copper continues. Our clients across Germany, the Netherlands, and Northern Italy are focused not just on volume, but on ESG-compliant sourcing—a strength we bring through our traceable African concentrates and refined products.

We expect copper prices to maintain a narrow but firm range through Q3. Structural backwardation in the forward curve indicates tightness in near-term availability. Our house view sees copper trading between $9,500 and $10,200/t, with support from both physical demand and constrained new supply. Aluminum should hover above $2,500/t, with pressure from power markets and tight European billet inventory. Zinc and nickel remain more susceptible to global liquidity and speculative flows, but key demand segments—especially galvanization and battery chemistry—remain intact.

At Steencore, we do not view the current stability as a reason for complacency—it is a signal that the metals market has matured. Strategic buyers are more sophisticated. Governments are aligning energy and industrial policy. And producers like us, who control logistics and transformation, are being rewarded with increased offtake agreements and client trust.

As we move deeper into 2025, Steencore will continue to expand our refinery partnerships, deepen our presence in the Copperbelt, and extend supply commitments to clean energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing partners across the globe. We’re not only responding to market shifts—we’re helping shape them.

For structured supply, hedging, and physical delivery solutions, contact our trading team at trade.desk@steencore.com.